NBA Finals Preview: Heat vs Nuggets

MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA - MARCH 31, 2023: Jimmy Butler, an American professional basketball player for the Miami Heat, attend the semifinal match at 2023 Miami Open at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami

Credit: Leonard Zhukovsky via Shutterstock

By: Joshua Martin

We may not have arrived to the Finals matchup we expected but it's definitely the one we deserved. The two best players in this year’s playoffs lead two squads who are polar opposites in almost every spectrum. 

You have Jimmy Butler who, with the combined forces of excellent coaching by Coach Eric Spoelstra and timely shot making from undrafted vets, helped propel a squad without its second leading scorer back to the championship round for the second time in 4 years. It's truly a David vs. Goliath scenario. So has been the journey for the Heat the entire way it seems. Starting in the play-in tournament, eventually becoming an 8th seed. No one had the Heat in this position.   

Then there’s Nikola Jokic, two time MVP, undisputed leader of the best team in the western conference all year long, leading a squad that's incredibly deep, consistently brilliant offensively and poised to lift the Larry O’Brien trophy for the first time in its franchise’s history. Jamal Murray and Jokic have been historically good this postseason and the Nuggets are finally healthy at the right time. 

The Journey

The Nuggets haven’t been tested much this postseason if we're being honest. Jokic dominated a brittle Lakers team with a flurry of triple doubles, sweeping them in the Western Finals. Murray turned back the hands of time and gave us a taste of what we saw from him in the bubble against the Suns, lifting them to a 4-2 series victory. The Timberwolves stole a game but it’s called a “gentleman's sweep”, emphasis on the word sweep, for a reason. 

The Heat on the other hand lost its first game of the play-in tournament but bounced back to secure an unfavorable first round matchup against. Unfavorable until Giannis sustained a back injury. The Heat handled the Bucks in 4-1 series thumping. Kept that same energy against the Knicks, reaching 4 wins in 6 games. Though pushed to a game 7, the Heat's supporting cast stepped up again led by Caleb Martin's deadly stroke from deep, becoming the first 8th seed since 1999 to reach the NBA Finals.  

Heat X factor - Caleb Martin - averaged 19.3 points per game in the east finals, along with shooting 60 percent from the floor and 49% from three.

X-Factors

Stars like Jokic, Butler and Jamal Murray will definitely have their say so on how this series will unfold but like most cases, the championship series is usually won between the margins, X-factors making timely shots and crucial decisions made by coaches in pivotal situations.

For the Heat, their fairing in this matchup hinges largely, in my opinion, on the health of Tyler Herro. After averaging 20.1 ppg for the Heat during the regular season, Herro has played only 19 minutes this postseason after suffering a broken hand in game 1 of the Bucks series. Herro isn't known for his defensive prowess but he is a capable scorer. For the Heat to have a legitimate chance in this series, they need all the firepower they can get to keep pace with the Nuggets. Shortly after Game 7, Senior NBA analyst for TNT, Chris Haynes, reported that Tyler is on course to return very soon.   

Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro (hand fracture) is ramping up workouts and is expected to make his return at some point during NBA Finals with Game 3 being the likely target, league sources tell @NBAonTNT, @BleacherReport.

— Chris Haynes (@ChrisBHaynes) May 30, 2023

The Nuggets have a number of players to pinpoint in this section. Bruce Brown, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Aaron Gordon. All are solid choices but the former number 2 overall pick in the 2018 draft may be the key to securing a title. Over the past few seasons, MPJ has thoroughly bought into being a role player but there are still plenty of moments when his pedigree shines through. Standing at 6’10”, once Porter Jr. gets going it's easy to see where the Klay Thompson comparisons come from. At his size, he will be able to simply shoot over or dribble past many of Miami’s defenders. If MPJ is involved and hitting his shots, he could be a nightmare matchup for the Heat. 

Final Verdict

I've been totally wrong this entire playoffs. I initially thought the Bucks would represent the East with the Suns coming out of the West in a possible 2021 finals rematch. Both teams eventually fell by the wayside after sustaining crucial injuries and facing scorching hot teams who couldn’t miss from the field. But this is about the present, the here and now. And honestly, I believe the Heat will win. I know the Nuggets have a better deeper team, so did the Celtics. I know the Nuggets have a dominant MVP big man, so did the Bucks. The Nuggets faithful don't tend to reach the heights of some of your more delusional Knicks fans but I'm pretty sure Ball Arena will be in a raucous frenzy. With all that being said, this year’s playoffs have shown me that my gut is no longer reliable. Whatever I know, I truly don’t. 

Heat in 6. 

NBA Finals Schedule

Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat

Game 1: At Denver, 8:30 p.m. ET Thursday (ABC)
Game 2: At Denver, 8 p.m. ET Sunday (ABC)
Game 3: At Miami, 8:30 p.m. ET June 7 (ABC)
Game 4: At Miami, 8:30 p.m. ET June 9 (ABC)
*Game 5: At Denver, 8:30 p.m. ET June 12 (ABC)
*Game 6: At Miami, 8:30 p.m. ET June 15 (ABC)
*Game 7: At Denver, 8 p.m. ET June 18 (ABC)

* - if necessary

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